An increase of 2.3% in Social Security benefits is projected for 2026, according to the latest forecast from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL)—a prominent advocacy group for seniors.
Projected Social Security Increase for 2026
TSCL has released its latest cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) projection for 2026, estimating a 2.3% raise for Social Security beneficiaries.
This predicted increase is slightly lower than the 2.5% adjustment for 2025, representing a 0.2 percentage point decline.
Purpose of COLA Adjustments
The annual COLA adjustments aim to help Social Security recipients keep up with the rising cost of living. These increases are based on economic indicators and are designed to counteract inflationary pressures.
However, advocacy groups argue that these adjustments do not fully reflect the actual cost increases that seniors face in everyday expenses.
Historical Trends in COLA Increases
Over the past few years, COLA adjustments have varied significantly due to inflation trends. Here’s how recent Social Security increases compare:
| Year | COLA Increase |
|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | 8.7% (Highest in 40+ years) |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026 (Projected) | 2.3% |
The 8.7% increase in 2023 was the largest in more than four decades, driven by record-high inflation, which peaked at over 9% in 2022. However, with inflation cooling down, COLA adjustments have been significantly smaller in recent years.
The Need for a New COLA Calculation Method
Advocacy groups, including TSCL, have expressed concerns that the current method of calculating COLA adjustments does not adequately reflect the actual expenses of seniors.
They argue that the adjustments are not keeping up with rising healthcare, housing, and daily living costs, putting financial strain on retirees and other Social Security recipients.
How the 2026 COLA Projection is Calculated
The Senior Citizens League updates its COLA predictions each month using a specialized statistical model. This model factors in:
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measures inflation levels
- The Federal Reserve’s interest rates – Impacts economic stability
- The national unemployment rate – Reflects broader economic conditions
As the economic landscape shifts, these projections are adjusted to reflect real-time changes in inflation, employment, and fiscal policies.
The 2.3% Social Security COLA increase projected for 2026 is part of an ongoing trend of smaller benefit adjustments following record-high inflation in recent years.
While these increases help beneficiaries manage inflation, advocacy groups argue that they are not enough to cover the rising costs that seniors face.
As economic conditions evolve, adjustments to the COLA formula may become necessary to ensure adequate financial support for retirees.
TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton Official Statement
- “Eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits would be an excellent step to provide financial relief to American seniors, many of whom are struggling with a cost of living that is growing much faster than their incomes. It would also reduce double taxation, which is inherently unjust.”
- “However, we need to do even more for low-income seniors whose dignity depends on Social Security payments that have already lost 20 percent of their buying power over the last 15 years. Many lower-income seniors already do not make enough to pay taxes on their Social Security benefits, and the only way to help them is by reforming Social Security’s COLAs.”
FAQs
What is the projected Social Security COLA for 2026?
The Senior Citizens League predicts a 2.3% increase in Social Security benefits for 2026.
How does this compare to previous years?
The 2.3% projected increase for 2026 is lower than the 2.5% COLA for 2025 and significantly smaller than the 8.7% increase in 2023.
What determines the COLA increase each year?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Federal Reserve interest rates, and national unemployment rate are key factors used in calculating COLA adjustments.
When everyone raises their prices even more than the COLA, it puts seniors with even a lower income. Eg, our trash bill rose by 28%. If we opt out (which we can’t), they will take us to court. $18 a month is a terribly high price to pay for 1 trash bag weekly! That isn’t taking in the price of groceries, electricity etc.
Ours is $25 month
2.3 percent increase are you kidding ?, medicare will eat that right up .
There should be a better way to give a cost of living increase , you know so the seniors could live without having to watch every penny .
This last one and the projected for this year is an insult like getting nothing at all !
It is most definite that they do need to do something about the cola increases between Medicare part b increase Medicare supplemental insurance increase lot rent increase My Medicare part d prescription increase I am $50 a month in the hole even more when you account for the prices of groceries. You have natural gas prices going up electric prices going up but yet I personally make too much money a month in social security to get any help of any sort from any government programs. It’s sad that we are going to continue to move backwards in our monthly incomes. I’m guessing that a majority of people are considered low income with their yearly amount of social security give it another few years and we’ll all be poverty.
The poor & people with disabilities are the most discriminated people in the U.S. we have no laws for us everyone has a law to protect them but not us which includes all races.A person cannot help they become disabled & no one can live on what I make.If we can give the amount of money to other Countries then namby hell everyone on disability should be getting 3,000 monthly when rent is 1,000 + utilities & food . Don’t tell me everyone has the same chance to be successful because if you walked a mile in my shoes most couldn’t endure what I been thru.The poor can’t get dental implants because the Dentist have monopolized the dental industry.Everything is about the love of money in the U.S…I am over all the bullshit.
Give us seniors a break please. We shouldn’t have to put our social security income on a IRS tax form. Plus add the 2.3 COLA, this should be enough to help the elderly out. This money could come from the cleaning of the swamps.